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pondering over this; I am in some degree inclined to their opinion。
Nevertheless; not to extinguish our free will; I hold it to be true that
Fortune is the arbiter of one…half of our actions; but that she still
leaves us to direct the other half; or perhaps a little less。
I pare her to one of those raging rivers; which when in flood
overflows the plains; sweeping away trees and buildings; bearing away
the soil from place to place; everything flies before it; all yield to
its violence; without being able in any way to withstand it; and yet;
though its nature be such; it does not follow therefore that men; when
the weather bees fair; shall not make provision; both with defences
and barriers; in such a manner that; rising again; the waters may pass
away by canal; and their force be neither so unrestrained nor so
dangerous。 So it happens with fortune; who shows her power where valour
has not prepared to resist her; and thither she turns her forces where
she knows that barriers and defences have not been raised to constrain
her。
And if you will consider Italy; which is the seat of these changes; and
which has given to them their impulse; you will see it to be an open
country without barriers and without any defence。 For if it had been
defended by proper valour; as are Germany; Spain; and France; either
this invasion would not have made the great changes it has made or it
would not have e at all。 And this I consider enough to say concerning
resistance to fortune in general。
But confining myself more to the particular; I say that a prince may be
seen happy to…day and ruined to…morrow without having shown any change
of disposition or character。 This; I believe; arises firstly from causes
that have already been discussed at length; namely; that the prince who
relies entirely upon fortune is lost when it changes。 I believe also
that he will be successful who directs his actions according to the
spirit of the times; and that he whose actions do not accord with the
times will not be successful。 Because men are seen; in affairs that lead
to the end which every man has before him; namely; glory and riches; to
get there by various methods; one with caution; another with haste; one
by force; another by skill; one by patience; another by its opposite;
and each one succeeds in reaching the goal by a different method。 One
can also see of two cautious men the one attain his end; the other fail;
and similarly; two men by different observances are equally successful;
the one being cautious; the other impetuous; all this arises from
nothing else than whether or not they conform in their methods to the
spirit of the times。 This follows from what I have said; that two men
working differently bring about the same effect; and of two working
similarly; one attains his object and the other does not。
Changes in estate also issue from this; for if; to one who governs
himself with caution and patience; times and affairs converge in such a
way that his administration is successful; his fortune is made; but if
times and affairs change; he is ruined if he does not change his course
of action。 But a man is not often found sufficiently circumspect to know
how to acmodate himself to the change; both because he cannot deviate
from what nature inclines him to; and also because; having always
prospered by acting in one way; he cannot be persuaded that it is well
to leave it; and; therefore; the cautious man; when it is time to turn
adventurous; does not know how to do it; hence he is ruined; but had he
changed his conduct with the times fortune would not have changed。
Pope Julius II went to work impetuously in all his affairs; and found
the times and circumstances conform so well to that line of action that
he always met with success。 Consider his first enterprise against
Bologna; Messer Giovanni Bentivogli being still alive。 The Venetians
were not agreeable to it; nor was the King of Spain; and he had the
enterprise still under discussion with the King of France; nevertheless
he personally entered upon the expedition with his accustomed boldness
and energy; a move which made Spain and the Venetians stand irresolute
and passive; the latter from fear; the former from desire to recover all
the kingdom of Naples; on the other hand; he drew after him the King of
France; because that king; having observed the movement; and desiring to
make the Pope his friend so as to humble the Venetians; found it
impossible to refuse him soldiers without manifestly offending him。
Therefore Julius with his impetuous action acplished what no other
pontiff with simple human wisdom could have done; for if he had waited
in Rome until he could get away; with his plans arranged and everything
fixed; as any other pontiff would have done; he would never have
succeeded。 Because the King of France would have made a thousand
excuses; and the others would have raised a thousand fears。
I will leave his other actions alone; as they were all alike; and they
all succeeded; for the shortness of his life did not let him experience
the contrary; but if circumstances had arisen which required him to go
cautiously; his ruin would have followed; because he would never have
deviated from those ways to which nature inclined him。
I conclude therefore that; fortune being changeful and mankind steadfast
in their ways; so long as the two are in agreement men are successful;
but unsuccessful when they fall out。 For my part I consider that it is
better to be adventurous than cautious; because fortune is a woman; and
if you wish to keep her under it is necessary to beat and ill…use her;
and it is seen that she allows herself to be mastered by the adventurous
rather than by those who go to work more coldly。 She is; therefore;
always; woman…like; a lover of young men; because they are less
cautious; more violent; and with more audacity mand her。
CHAPTER XXVI
AN EXHORTATION TO LIBERATE ITALY FROM THE BARBARIANS
HAVING ca